A bigger challenge for PM

December 4, 2001

NO one can any more ignore the strong political undercurrents taking shape in the past few weeks. Equations among different political formations are undergoing subtle changes. While on the one hand old bonds are getting sour, there are signs of thaw in the relationship between what was hitherto considered as bitter political foes. However, the good news is that even if all such developments take a concrete shape, it may not pose any immediate danger to the Vajpayee government.

This is because the present Lok Sabha is that of Atal Behari Vajpayee. And so long as there is no radical change in the equations of one or more NDA constituents in states with their local rivals, his government will continue to enjoy numerical stability. Even a total opposition consolidation in this Lok Sabha cannot unseat him unless the former is able to wean away the state bosses of some of the NDA allies. Again, luckily for Vajpayee, the opposition is not even thinking on these lines.

Up to now no Opposition leader has bothered to build bridges with any of the NDA allies. Leaders of the old Janata parivar in the opposition argue that since their former colleagues have fully aligned with the BJP, they will now be forced to depend more and more on the saffron support. The more such parties are seen as silently supporting the saffron policies, the greater will be their isolation from the mainstream support base on the ground. The more well established parties like the DMK and the TDP alone could withstand this saffron syndrome.

The really bad news for Mr Vajpayee has not been the first-ever decision for floor coordination by the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. This is a significant step. It can, if both sides make necessary accommodation, lead to a better understanding on the ground. But the real meaning of the floor coordination with the presence of such leaders as Sharad Pawar and Chandra Shekhar at the patch-up meet have been the virtual acceptance of the Congress supremacy by all others. True, the Congress has neither made it a condition nor others formally conceded it. Yet every one seems to have accepted this reality.

Three years have made all the difference. Sonia Gandhi was then unacceptable because she was yet to prove her existence within her own party. She was seen as an untested usurper under whom the Congress had even lost leadership and direction. This has been the general impression. The Congress tally in the Lok Sabha had touched the rockbottom. With a heavy baggage of old sins, the party was seen as fumbling in Parliament. It became a butt of ridicule when it found itself under compulsion to support most of the NDA decisions.

With 11 Chief Ministers under it, the Congress is no more being dismissed as a sinking ship. All its vigorous “congressisation” have not enabled the BJP to reach anywhere near the Congress in terms of vote percentage, geographical spread and popular acceptability. Its winning spree in state elections, partly due to the failures of the NDA constituents, has made those who had derided Sonia Gandhi’s “suicidal leadership”, change their mind. Practical as they are, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Sharad Pawar seem to have realised the pre-eminent position of the Congress in any future coalitional arrangement.

Mulayam Singh Yadav’s efforts to spread his wings to other states did not click. This has left him with the option of either reluctantly accept the Congress domination at the Centre or let his arch rival BJP rule the roost over him. Sharad Pawar’s predicament is worse. Having burnt his fingers, he will have to find a face-saving formula to make another “home-coming” – a term he had used in the early 80s.

Unlike Mulayam Singh Yadav, he is a junior partner even within his only stronghold. The coalitional arrangement in the state reduces the scope for the party’s expansion. Again, unlike Yadav who has the Left backing, Pawar is practically friendless in national politics. He did try hobnobbing with the BJP-Shiv Sena opposition but realised that such an action would further erode his base.

If the domination of the Congress is a virtual reality, so is Sonia Gandhi’s. Her party has made it clear that she is its leader and there would be no compromise on this. To be fair, her own conduct ever since she took her hierarchical reins has been truly credible. Over the years, she has developed a fairly sound leadership style. One can charge her with being indecisive or confused. But she has never acted whimsical and abrasive like her late husband or authoritarian and aggressive as Indira Gandhi. This may be due to Sonia Gandhi’s own limitations. Or may be, she might act differently as and when she emerges stronger.

Some of us were too hasty to conclude that she was under the influence of Fotedars and Arjun Singhs. Now we realise that she has developed an elaborate system of consultations and decision-making with maximum role for moderates and untainted. This has helped the party regain more acceptability. Coterie and caucus have disappeared. The Congress under her is the least faction-ridden – even in states where the party is in power. The Opposition and ruling party representatives find no fault with her personal conduct. All this can add to her acceptability.

Apparently, the Congress too has climbed down in the bargain. The party has buried its Pachmarhi doctrine of “go-alone”. It has been forced to revise its policies on a variety of issues, including economic reform, and sit with minor opposition groups as equals and put up with all their tantrums.

It is, however, too premature to read too much into the decision for floor coordination. The whole thing is still uncertain. Even if such a coordination does have a smooth sail. The UP elections are bound to produce more frictions. There is already resistance from the Congress ranks to the party becoming a minor partner in UP. In case it is forced, it will complete the process of its marginalisation and add UP to the list of Tamil Nadu, Bihar and West Bengal.

Mr Vajpayee has also reasons to worry about the jarring voices within the NDA. Though not directly linked, Janata splinters like the JD(U), the Paswan party and Samata minus Fernandes have been unhappy about their shabby treatment. They have been frequently airing their protests against the BJP taking away all important ministries from them. Since then there has been talk of reunification of the splinter JD groups.

There have also been feeble efforts to function as a front within the NDA to strike joint bargains. They had another meeting this week. At the moment, this may not be a big deal because senior leaders of the groups have so far discreetly remained in the background. In any case, those like George Fernandes can easily pacify the disgruntled lot. Yet such irritants may add up to the growing trend, if things go worse.

By P. Raman.